Category Archives: Real Estate

Real Estate Collapse

The Next Real Estate Collapse?

Largely ignored in the holiday rush was the news that luxury home prices fell 2.2% during the third quarter – the first such decline in nearly four years.

According to the Redfin real estate brokerage, wealthy clients are stepping back out of fear from stock market volatility, and are worrying about tying up too much of their wealth in non-liquid assets, especially if another real estate collapse appears.

The decline is even more notable because luxury homes serve as something of a bellwether for the rest of the “non-lux” real estate market (which still rose just under 4% for the same period).

The original housing-bubble stocks of a decade ago might offer a clue on the timing. Shares of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), the nation’s largest builder of luxury homes, peaked in July of 2005 before starting their precipitous decline. But the stock prices of builders focused on the low- and mid-priced ends of the market stayed strong – at least at first. For instance, the shares of Lennar Brothers (NYSE: LEN), one of the biggest homebuilders in the country, didn’t crack until April of 2006.

Interestingly, Toll Brothers’ shares today are down nearly 25% from their post-recovery highs (to the lowest price in 13 months), while Lennar shares are just starting to break down.

California Dreamin’?

Chinese buyers have been key players in the run-up of America’s luxury home prices. And their influence is felt most strongly in California and the San Francisco Bay area, the hottest of America’s real estate markets this go-round.

Not coincidentally, it appears Chinese buyers may now be pulling back there as well, possibly ushering in the next real estate collapse. Home sales in California fell 20.5% in November – more than twice the monthly average (it’s traditionally a weak month prior to the end of year holidays). October’s home sales also fell a little over 5%, while dropping 1.5% in September.

For now, the real estate community appears to be dismissing the collapse of sales as the result of changes in new loan disclosure rules by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and what is usually a softer seasonal period for home sales anyway.

I don’t blame them. As a media consultant once told me back in my reporting days, “Never let too many facts get in the way of a good story.”

But the “Chinese buyers” real estate gravy train is grinding to a halt fast. Last summer’s 40% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index should have been the first clue. The second was the relentlessly positive “it’s just temporary” narrative spun by so many brokers and property developers who don’t want the ride to end. The third clue may be upon us here at the start of 2016 as the Shanghai index lurches lower yet again.

 

Home Appraisals

A home appraisal is an opinion on value by a qualified, unbiased third party. Mortgage lenders require an appraisal to be completed when you are refinancing your mortgage. An appraisal is also completed in a transaction when someone is buying a home to make sure they have not over paid for it.

Mortgage Lenders require appraisal to ensure that homeowners are not over paying for a property because if the borrower stops paying for the mortgage the lender will take action to remove the borrower from the home and sell it to recoup their money, this is why it is important for the home to be worth more than the money loaned. In essence, a home appraisal is a lawyer of protection for the mortgage lender.

The Appraisal Process and How Appraisal Values Are Determined

These are the main factors that influence your home’s appraisal value: current market trends which are reflected in the comparable properties the appraiser selects, the house’s features,, square footage, number rooms/bedrooms & bathrooms, condition, is the property considered up to date, landscaping and exterior condition and parking (garage). The appraiser will do an interior and exterior inspection for the above noted factors and will also make note of any deferred maintenance which will be included in the report for the lender.

The appraiser will complete his report on a standard report form that is required by their appraisal jurisdiction. The information that has to be included in an appraisal report will not vary much from Canada to the United States.

A standard report includes the following: comparable sales, a street map, building sketch, square footage, photos of the front, back and street scene of the home, photographs of each comparable property used; a map showing the location of the comparables in relation to the subject property, plot map, description of intended users of the appraisal report, photo and description of each room in the house.

The cost of a residential appraisal report ranges from $250-$500 and the homeowner is typically responsible for paying the appraiser..

What Homebuyers Need to Know

When you’re buying a home an appraisal could potentially sink your deal. If you make an offer to purchase a house, towards the end of the home buying process your mortgage lender will require that the home being purchased be appraised. If the home appraises for less than your offer to purchase the lender will not provide the loan, however, this could be good for a buyer as well because you may be able to negotiate to lower purchase price but very often at the point of the home appraisal in the buying process an agreement of purchase and sale is already in place.. If a bad appraisal is standing between you and your home purchase, look into getting a second opinion via a second appraisal. Appraisers are not perfect and it is possible for them to make mistakes.

What Home Sellers Need to Know

As a seller, a low appraisal means that you may have to lower your home’s price to get it sold. Lenders won’t approve loans for more than a home is worth, and holding out for an all-cash buyer who doesn’t require an appraisal as a condition of completing the transaction is unlikely to net you a higher sales price. No one wants to overpay for a home but more importantly a mortgage lender will not over lend on the value of a property, therefor if the appraisal comes in lower than what your buyer is offering this will likely sink your deal unless you lower the price.

What Refinancing Homeowners Need to Know

If you’re refinancing your mortgage and looking to access some of the equity in the home the appraised value is very important. Mortgage lenders will have maximum loan to value ratio that they will go up to so the larger the difference between what you owe on your current mortgage and what the home is appraised at obviously the better. Having a better loan to value ratio will also make obtaining the lowest possible mortgage rates possible. Lenders put a lot of emphasis on this ratio so a high appraisal value is very important.

 

Deal With a Low Home Appraisal

In a competitive real estate market, a home being sold may enter into a multiple offer situation which could potentially raise the purchase price above the comparable sales in the area. In a situation like this, it is possible that the home appraisal for the buyer’s mortgage lender will come in lower than the purchase price. In a real estate market that favors buyers, sellers can also face a home appraisal that is lower than what they paid for the home if they bought the house at the peak of the market

Why Do Low Appraisals Happen?

Here are a few reasons why a home appraisals may come in low:

Inflated home price because of multiple offers.

Declining real estate market due to a large inventory of homes and not enough buyers.

The seller has overpriced the home.

The real estate appraiser lacks experience and doesn’t understand the influences on value.

The real estate appraiser incorrectly selected his comparable sales for his report which may have resulted in a lower home value than what should have been assessed.

Solutions for Low Appraisals

If a low home appraisal is threatening to sink your sale, purchase or refinance, stay calm, here are a couple solutions:

The buyer can pay you the difference between the purchase price you agreed upon and the appraised price in cash, you can sell the property for the appraised value and get the difference from the agreed upon higher price in a lump sum cash payment if the buyer is able to do so.

If you are the seller of the home you do have the option of lowering the selling price. If you don’t you will run the risk of every buyer running into the same problem and not being able to get a mortgage because of a low appraisal.

The seller can offer to carry a second mortgage for the difference.

If the buyer feels they absolutely have to have your home and you are not willing to lower the selling price and the buyer cannot come up with a lump sum to pay you (as mentioned in option 1) you could accept having them make payments to you over a period of time instead of the lump sum.

 

Housing Bubble Is Set to Pop

For generations, it was always a good bet to invest in a place Americans call home. Housing had almost always increased in value, and you received a multiple of whatever you invested into it in your total return.

The Truth About the Housing Bubble

There is a substantial divergence as we approach 2015. Prices have climbed about 50% since 2000 and rebounded strongly from the bottom in 2010 to 2011. But existing home sales – the amount of homes actually sold – have lagged and are up just 5% since 2000.

Median prices have topped their bubbled peaks set in 2005, but this time, the amount of homes sold is 30% less.

That means we are seeing prices set new highs as fewer buyers are in the market.

The rationale is that housing currently has a tight supply, meaning there aren’t enough homes to meet the amount of potential buyers. That may be the case to some extent. But right now, homes that are either in foreclosure, bank-owned or completely vacant are near all-time highs.

Clearly there is more going on here than just a lack of supply. The reality is that many buyers are investors, buying properties and sitting on them. This crimps supply, which helps raise prices.

Back in 2008, you could have heard the same story. The goal was to flip houses, or own a few of them to rent out. We are seeing these actions roaring back today.And if supply was so tight, buyers would simply build new homes, but those numbers are no better than the existing home sales.

There’s a big discrepancy from new homes sold versus the price these homes are fetching – and this is supply that is practically infinite as we can always build a new home.

Fed-Fueled Crash

I see one of two scenarios at play. Which one do you think will ring true?

  • Homebuyers continue to fork over more dollars to buy properties while we sit with stagnant wage growth, stagnant economic growth and low-wage jobs being about all that’s created.
  • We are on the edge of a bubble larger than the one we experienced less than a decade ago as housing prices race back down to where it is affordable and sees demand from new buyers.

The Federal Reserve is held accountable for this fiasco. If it goes forward with a rate increase in the near future, it will be us who pay the price of another bubble.In stocks, that’s homebuilders and mortgage originators. Avoid them at all costs. In your personal investments, that’s being prepared for another real estate shock.

Milton Real Estate

Whether you want compact apartments and houses for your single use or your small family, maybe you want a massive house built with wide rooms and bedrooms for your large family, or maybe you want to go for more luxurious villas… you will get well-built real estate of your choice in Milton.

Population

Milton is the fastest growing municipality according to the census conducted in 2006 and 2011. The census showed that Milton is experiencing approx. 71% rise in population from the year 2001 to 2006 and saw roughly a 56% surge in population from 2006 to 2011. The population of Milton, in 2014, is approximately 100,000, but as it is growing rapidly, its population in 2031 is forecasted to be approx. 220,000.

You will also have no problem communicating with the people in Milton as approximately 70% of the population are native English speakers, according to the census of 2011. The remaining 30% people can also communicate in English as their secondary language.

Residency and Growth

With population, the residential growth also saw a massive increase in Milton. This is also due to the successful completion of the project dubbed “the big pipe”, which was about making a piping structure which will deliver water from Lake Ontario to Milton.

By 2006, Milton had 7 new subdivisions, which included Hawthorne Village. Many new subdivisions from the list are developing, which means that there will be constant development – which is the secret of developed regions.

The council of Milton, in 2014, approved the making of more homes in Milton, which saw a surge of 25,000 residents. Moreover, there are vast numbers of home constructions at any given time in Milton, which is attracting more and more residents. In the numbers of residents, there is a fair amount of people coming from other areas of Ontario too.

Transportation

The town has an easy access to the highway 401 and 407 from Oakville and Hamilton. The town has its carriage railway lines for consignments. It has railway transportation service for passengers from Go transit and Via Rail.

If you take the highway 401, you are only 40 km far from the largest International airport (according to the passenger volume) Toronto Pearson. However, the town has a closer airport in the neighboring Burlington, the Burlington airport. The airport does provide passenger services but the services are not regular.

Buyer’s and Seller’s Markets Impact Homes for Sale

Buyer’s Market

Simply put, a buyer’s market is a result of the economic principle of supply and demand. In this case, there are more properties in supply (i.e. for sale) than there is a demand for them, meaning that those looking to invest in real estate have a lot of options to choose from. Supply and demand fluctuate depending on how many new customers enter an area and how many homeowners in the region have decided to stay in their properties.

In these circumstances, there are plentiful homes for sale, which favors those interested in investing in residential property. The geographic region and price ranges are favorable and the cost to purchase is relatively low. If housing in an area tends to take more than six months to sell, then it is considered a buyer’s market. You can easily find how many days a property has been listed on various real estate sites.

Seller’s Market

In a seller’s market, it is harder to find homes for sale. The supply is low in comparison to the demand to purchase property. Prices are typically a little higher and houses don’t tend to stay listed for as long a period of time.

When this occurs, there are a limited number of options. Buyers will have less opportunity to negotiate-because sellers can entertain other offers-and as a result, will pay more than they would in a buyer’s market. Sellers can increase their prices and, as long as the homes appraise for the asking price, receive more than they otherwise could.

What Stimulates the Change

As with everything, housing properties will fluctuate between shortage and surplus. While there is no clear determination on how long the current stage will last, there are several factors that can impact the supply and demand of homes for sale in your area. Things like interest rates, consumer confidence, and economic conditions have a high impact. A growing regional economy coupled with low-interest rates and high confidence can lead more people to buy houses.

 

Explained Statistics Real Estate

We are going to define some of the basic real estate statistics that get thrown around on a regular basis. To do that, we will use one real estate market, located in Hood County Texas. Even more granular, we will use the single family numbers for homes in Granbury Tx, a small town of approximately 8,000 residents which has seen substantial real estate growth in the past 12 months. It is important when reviewing real estate statistics to use a group of numbers large enough for consistency, but granular enough to tell your story.

Anytime you are evaluating statistics, especially in real estate, the source of the numbers are extremely important. In most instances, the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) provides the most accurate numbers when referring to real estate. This is because they have all listings by all local real estate brokers in their database. For the sake of explanation of the data, we will be looking at the numbers for home sales in Granbury Tx, directly from the MLS. These numbers are meant to give an example of how to read the statistics themselves. Anytime you evaluate real estate numbers,

Basic Real Estate Statistics

Number of Sales – This one is pretty self explanatory. It is simply the number of single family homes sold in a particular month. In January of 2015, they had 51 single family homes sold. One thing to pay attention to when looking at this statistic is are they using the Under Contract date or the day the property actually went to closing. These two dates are usually between 30 and 60 days apart, so its critical that you know which one is being referenced. In addition, many of the homes that get calculated, if you are using the “under contract” number may not actually close! In our example, we are using the number of homes that actually closed. In January of 2016 they had an increase of over 49% which brought the total to 77 from 51. Growth of that level is very seldom ever seen.

Sales Volume – Sales Volume is simply the total amount of dollars spent on single family housing within that month. Once again, when reviewing this statistic, its important to keep the property types consistent. If you are comparing two areas to see which one has grown more and you include vacant land in the number for one area, you must include it in the other too. As previously mentioned, our examples only include single family properties. With Number of Sales looking at the units, you would expect the Sales Volume to go up appropriately, but in this instance, it went up even more than the units (by percentage). The total Sales Volume of single family homes in Granbury in January of 2016 was $15,191,500 as opposed to the January of 2015 number of $9,281,915. That is an increase of over 63%. Because the Sales Volume went up at a larger rate than the number of units, this reflects the average home sale being much larger in 2016 than 2015.

Months of Inventory – This is a commonly referred to statistic when examining a real estate market. This statistic refers to at the current rate of sales, how long will it take to sell through the existing level of inventory. This reflects the supply and demand for the market. In our example, in January of 2015 the level of inventory was 9 months and in January of 2016 it had dropped to 6 months. That is a 33% drop in available inventory! This means if you are looking to buy a home in Granbury Tx, it will be a little tougher in 2016 as there is less inventory available to buy.

Median Days To Sell – This stat simply refers to how long it takes for single family properties to be put under contract. Don’t let the “to sell” confuse you. To accurately show the demand for active homes, you really want to track how long it takes to go “under contract”. The process of acquiring final lender approval, insurance and getting to a closing can vary on a variety of factors. In January of 2015, the Median Days to Sell was 88. That number dropped by over 30% to 61. Once again, this tells you if you are looking for homes in Granbury TX, you better get your offers in quickly as the most desirable homes are going fast!

Ready Possession Flat or Get a Home Constructed

Every person has a dream to construct a house that suits to the needs and requirements of the family members. It gets fulfilled when you plan and construct a house for you. Here, your liking and preferences of interior decoration, a color of paint, types of tiles and marbles and a lot of other features of the house give preference. You can choose between costly and cheap materials of construction. You can supervise the laborers and technicians who work to construct your house. Meanwhile, you can save a lot of money. Again, you can construct your house part by part. It is not necessary for you to construct it at a stretch.

You can complete the work as and when you have money. Hence, your house becomes a fulfillment of your wishes and dreams. At the same time, there are a lot of disadvantages too. Constructing a house by you takes away a lot of your time and energy. If your knowledge in the construction field is limited, you may make mistakes in choosing the right materials and laborers for the construction. These days labour is not easily available. In the case of a sudden financial crunch, your dream to construct your dream house may not get fulfilled.

Buy a Flat

When you buy ready possession flats for sale, you have a lot of advantages. The most appealing benefit of buying a flat is that you can move as soon as you complete the buying formalities. There are no worries and hurries of construction. You become the owner of a beautiful home overnight. Your confidence and self-esteem will shoot up and you will achieve the status of being the proud owner of a flat. When you choose a ready to possession flat for sale, you choose to live in a highly developed are in your society.

US Real Estate

The story didn’t get much media play back in January, but that’s when the U.S. Treasury Department and its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) announced the issuance of “Geographic Targeting Orders” for New York City and Miami.

The “GTOs,” according to FinCEN’s press release, require “certain U.S. title insurance companies to identify the natural persons behind companies used to pay ‘all cash’ for high-end residential real estate.”

Basically, the folks at the Treasury are worried whether corrupt foreign officials or “transnational criminals” might be laundering piles of dirty money through these multimillion-dollar property purchases.

Or is Uncle Sam just worried about the flood of Chinese cash into the American real estate market? “All cash” is practically a synonym for rich Chinese property buyers.

At least, that used to be the case. As we’ve seen in the “cooling off” headlines around the country, the absence of this class of real estate purchaser is starting to be felt in markets around the country.

An article in The New York Times late last year really brings the impact of Chinese property buyers into focus. When it comes to purchasing a home in America, they pay an average price of $831,000 – nearly double what international buyers from India ($460,000), Britain ($455,000) and Canada ($380,000) pay for their homes in the U.S.

In coming quarters, I believe the FinCEN “targeting orders” will likely spell the end of the property-speculation craze among Chinese buyers. The government action may only be limited to New York City and Miami, but it will have a deep chilling effect everywhere. After all, it only takes another press release from FinCEN to announce an expansion into other American cities of its inquiry into the identities of those big-money, anonymous all-cash property buyers.

The trend will take time, with the data trickling onto economists’ spreadsheets. But as Chinese elites continue to pull back from American real estate, well, get ready for a “Wile E. Coyote” moment in high-end luxury home prices – and more pressure on the Federal Reserve to reverse its stance on interest rates.

 

Dominate Real Estate Value

When people usually think of real estate value they think of two forces; supply and demand. Yes, this is correct; however supply and demand only fall under the one of the four main categories that drive/depress real estate value. Supply and demand fall under the economic category of influences in real estate value.

This tie into the potential for demand in the economic section of value; the more demand, the more value a property can derive. Population however should be looked at in more depth by breaking down the sample by age and gender, rate of household formation and partition, as well as analysis of the social values such as education, law and order, and lifestyle preferences. Careful consideration of these factors will help establish trends in what would be reflected in real estate values.
Next is the government subjection, accounting for a large aspect of real estate value. This includes political and legal activities on several levels of government. These government influences have the power to overwhelm natural market forces such that you would find in the economic category. Government has their hand in providing facilities and services that affect values as well as a one of the main contributors to patterns of land use (zoning, by-laws, etc). The following are some things to look out for when assessing the government subjection of a market; fire and police services, garbage collection, transportation arrangement, utilities, zoning, building codes, health codes, and fiscal policies.

In addition to the social impact, as well as government subjection, the environmental forces also play a part in real estate values. These can be natural or man-made and are analyzed by observing several aspects. Climatic conditions (snowfall, rainfall, temperature, humidity) would be an obvious one that would affect the values of building somewhere as well as maintenance and carrying costs, as well as the quality and type of build. Topography, soil and consideration of any toxic contaminants would also be of great importance as well as natural barriers, such as rivers, mountains, lakes, etc.

Just to get out of the 4 factors of real estate value; it is important to mention that there are some overlying factors that would be part of 2 or more of the categories. Once such factor is location, this is the link of a property in time/distance to any given origin or destination of a resident/user of the property. Location could fall under for environmental and economic, if not all categories. Due to the area and property type, properties access to public transport, schools, hospitals, stores, employment, suppliers, recreational and cultural facilities, parks, and places of worship would of importance.